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Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud wants an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital before normal relations with Israel |
Analysts in the Middle East have begun to say that Saudi Arabia is still in a dilemma over its relations with Israel, following recent statements by the Saudi royal family and some influential figures in the government and the silence of the powerful Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
They say that no matter how much President Trump pushes and no matter how enthusiastic Prince Mohammed is, normal relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel are not being established right now.
Nayel Shama, a Middle East political analyst in Cairo, told BBC Bangla that there was no doubt that there was still a lot of confusion within the Saudi royal family over normalizing relations with Israel.
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According to him, "the powerful prince bin Salman wants to make a quick decision, but his father King Salman is still hesitant."
The first signs of that dilemma were seen on September 23 when King Salman made it clear in his speech to the UN General Assembly that Saudi Arabia was still committed to the 2002 Arab peace plan.
He said normal relations with Israel were possible only if they agreed to establish an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as their capital.
There are more examples of President Trump or his own son's wishes that the Saudi king is not doing.
Separation in the Saudi royal family:
The influential US daily, The Wall Street Journal, said in an investigative report last week that the Saudi royal family was divided over the question of establishing relations with Israel.
The paper claims that prior to the deal, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed knew everything about negotiations between the UAE or the UAE and Bahrain between Israeli and American officials, but he kept it a secret from his father.
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| Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, then Governor of Riyadh, with the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat - Algiers, November 20, 1986 |
A report in Time, another influential US magazine, claimed that Bahrain was reluctant to sign the agreement for fear of angering King Salman, but Prince Mohammed reassured them.
The Wall Street Journal says King Salman is angry with the boy and has instructed his foreign minister to renew Saudi commitment to an independent Palestinian state and Jerusalem.
That is why, shortly after the UAE announced its decision in August, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan visited Germany and told reporters that there was no question of ignoring the issue of resolving the Palestinian crisis.
Last week, Prince Turki al-Faisal, an influential member of the Saudi royal family and former intelligence chief, wrote in a commentary on the Saudi daily Ashrak al-Awsa:
Prince Turki, who is known to be close to King Salman, wrote, “Saudi Arabia has set a price. And then - an independent Palestinian state must be established, with Jerusalem as its capital. "
Behind the scenes relationship:
Saudi Arabia is alarmed by declining US influence in the Middle East, as well as Shiite Iran's military and political ambitions.
No matter what the Saudi king says now, his government has been in touch with Israel behind the scenes for more than a decade.
But the first indication of that relationship being made public was found during Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit to the United States in April 2018.
The Saudi prince, in a meeting with US Jewish leaders there, openly criticized the Palestinian leadership, saying they had to be flexible in their demands.
According to media reports at the time, the Saudi prince openly said that Saudi Arabia wanted a solution to the Palestinian crisis, but that "dealing with Iran is now a much more important priority for them."
Observers believe that Prince bin Salman and many of the Gulf Arab rulers now feel it is a waste of time to sit down with the Palestinian issue and be against the national interest. They are putting more emphasis on relations with Israel in the interests of deterring Iran and technological and economic interests.
Prince bin Salman's plan called "Vision 2030" to reduce its dependence on oil is keen to have Israel as its partner.
Why the Saudi king hesitated:
But why such a dilemma between the Saudi royal family and some of the rulers?
Dr. Nayel Shama says that while there is a "generational" difference of opinion, there is also a concern between the Saudi royal family and an influential section of the Saudi state over its leadership in the Islamic world.
This section considers that compromising on the issue of Palestinian rights, Arab control over Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque would threaten the acceptance of the Saudi royal family or Saudi Arabia to Muslims around the world as guardians of the mosques in Mecca and Medina.
Dr. "The Saudi royal family values holding the flag of Islamic leadership," Shama said. They think this influence is their biggest diplomatic weapon. Neither the UAE nor Bahrain has any such aspirations. "
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| Prince Mohammed bin Salman is considered to be the most influential in Saudi Arabia |
He also said that as the current rulers of the UAE seek to remove Islamic influence from their society and politics, "the Saudi royal family still does not think so at all."
Added to that is Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan's new desire to lead the Middle East and the Islamic world.
Saudi public opinion:
At the same time, many observers believe that recognizing Israel without paying a ransom would not be acceptable to ordinary Saudis - a concern among members of the Saudi royal family.
On the day of the signing of the Israeli agreement with the UAE and Bahrain, some of the Saudi public opinions were ignited. Shortly after the September 15 agreement in Washington, the Twitter hashtag "This normal relationship betrays" took Saudi Arabia by storm.
At the same time, after posting very old video footage on Twitter, many Saudis liked it. The video footage shows the late Saudi King Faisal saying angrily, "If the whole Arab world recognizes Israel, accepts the partition of Palestine, Saudi Arabia will never agree with it."
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In that video footage, today's King Salman was standing behind King Faisal. Many believe that the 84-year-old King Salman may not be able to personally accept the establishment of relations with Israel without any concessions on the Palestinian issue.
However, he does not think that public opinion is working too much. Nayel Shama.
"It simply came to our notice then that the majority of the Saudi people were not interested in relations with Israel at all. But there is no culture in the country to oppose the government's decision, and that is unlikely to change in the near future. "
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But the question is, how logical is the Saudi monarchy's insistence on an independent Palestinian state? Will Israel listen to it now, especially when Iran has emerged as a bigger enemy to many Arab countries?
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| Palestinians protest against UAE at Al Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem after establishing ties with Israel |
Mohammed El-Dahshan, a Middle East researcher at Chatham House in London, who has been in the West Bank and Israel for a long time working for the United Nations, told BBC Bangla that Palestinians no longer dream of an independent state.
"New Jewish settlements are still being built in the West Bank and East Jerusalem," he said. The Jewish population in those settlements has exceeded eight million. In the name of protecting those settlements, wall after wall has been erected in the Palestinian settlements. The Gaza Strip is now a prison. "
"As a result, the Palestinians have realized that state formation is no longer possible. Even if their leaders do not say it, they understand the reality."
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Dr. Nayel Shama also thinks that King Salman's claim is very futile, because "the possibility of implementing the Arab peace plan is now very remote."
"Rhetoric is more than the essence of politics in the Arab world. The war in Yemen, the assassination of Khashoggi, and the economic crisis have plunged Saudi Arabia into an image crisis. Maintaining acceptance inside and outside the country is now very important for the Saudi royal family. "
King Salman may want to be careful with that consideration.
Nayel Shama thinks that once King Salman's rule is over, the Saudis will soon take action on Israel.
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